De'Aaron Fox is still a star
The first thing to notice about the Boston Celtics is how old the roster. Almost all of the key players are 30 or north of it, and one of them shouldn't be anything more than a bit rotation player at most, but he's been given the starting minutes out of nostalgia and memory for what he once was.
The Good
1. De'Aaron Fox is still elite.
So long as Fox is on the roster and in the lineup, this is a Celtics team that can compete for the play-ins. At 31 years old, he has yet to lose a step and there's financial flexibility in the TO for next summer that could very well be declined and renounced if Boston decides to be free agent players this summer and try to bring him back on a cheaper contract than $20 million a year (more on that later).
2. The best Bridge is still here and doing well.
Miles Bridges is unquestionably the best player in the family and he's looked the sharpest he has in years from an efficiency standpoint. Should the new management opt for a rebuild, Fox and Miles should command the highest return, and the front office should be patient and wait out the sharks who will offer terrible value.
3. There's a buttload of great 3 point shooters.
3 point shooting is the name of the game in the CSL. You need at least one to win, and in Fox, Bridges, and Keldon Johnson, that's 3 three excellent snipers on volume. 28 year old Wendell Moore and 24 year old rookie Vin Baker Jr have also looked good to quality in that category.
The Bad
1. There's no rim protector worthy of the role on this team.
The center position is looking pretty bleak here in terms of a last line of defense. Yes, Tryggvi Hlinason is still a block monster, but once someone slips past the drive defenders, it's largely open season and a free shot at the rim because there's simply no enforcer to be had on the defensive end.
2. Only VBJ is a prospect to be excited about, and there's no midrange players.
Simply, the cliff falls off hard in a year or two, and the time is coming very soon when Boston will be forced into a long rebuild. And that's concerning, considering VBJ is an old rookie at 24, and by the time he's in his prime, the team will have a lot of young pups still adapting to the CSL around him.
3. The underlying stats suggest this is a mediocre team.
Everything you look at from an analytics standpoint makes it clear that this is a squad that is no longer a true playoff squad. It's a lower-middle roster in its decline phase, the foundations crumbling.
The Ugly
1. Having to watch Skal start every game.
Time has clearly caught up to Skal. At 34 years old, he should not be starting. VBJ, Nemias Quita, Devin Davis - all three of those players are better fits for the lineup and frankly probably playing time in general at this stage in everyone's career. That move alone would generate more wins and better play.
The Path Forward
With all of their picks in tow, the Celtics can immediately opt for the rebuild route if they choose. The new management has comparable comps for Fox in looking at the recent Jayson Tatum deals for ideas of what to try and get for him, with Fox's year older and better defense balancing out Tatum's year younger and poorer defense. Bridges is much harder to find a comp for, and should probably involve a waiting game to the trade deadline to see what the potential market looks like.
Boston could also reset this summer by renouncing all of their last year FAs, declining and renouncing Skal if he isn't traded before then to a team looking for cap relief this summer, and rolling the dice on declining and renouncing Fox to bring him back on a more affordable contract. This sequence of moves would immediately polevault the Celtics into free agency players with a long, established record as one of the CSL's better franchises. In short, an Indiana Pacers situation with a GM who will actually go out and get people.
If the Celtics opt to keep the core this season, a low-usage rim protecting center to replace Skal in the lineup is an absolute must, freeing up more shots for Fox and Bridges. But they would need to do it without sacrificing future draft capital because of the impending collapse and lack of a small-b bridge to the next generation. Because of their unique situation, Vin Baker, Jr. could very well be in play in such a deal for the right player - after all, VBJ is on a very lonely island in terms of the window timing.
2020, 2023, 2027, 2035
