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CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

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bt
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CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by bt »

Now that scouting has returned, so have the power rankings... enjoy!

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by Flaming Homer »

Awesome, thanks Ryan!

We are worse than last year, our win margin is sub optimal and our defense a work in progress.

Also as expected, we had a fairly easy first half schedule. Hope that is not really back firing on us the rest of the season.

WOW to Dallas sitting on top of the rankings. Well done.

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by wms02a »

Kinda of shocked we are on top... was expecting top 6 but not #1... very happy we have the lowest points allowed
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by drumr »

17th. Hopefully with Kuz in the fold we can get it going!
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by Marcos_Beck »

Thanks for this Ryan!
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by hardenwithnod »

Great work as usual, Ryan!
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by KW »

first time we've been up this high in a long time but we're struggling without Reddish so far, could see us dropping a bit.

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by GreenBear »

Looking at a couple of these teams, I think to me, the formula puts maybe a little too much weight into Margin of victory in the past 10 games compared to everything else. For example, Rockets and Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have slightly better stats on the season (SoS and Margin are virtually identical, while Grizzlies have a better record and Rockets have more home games), so that means the Rockets must outscore them in the past 10 games. Their records the past 10 are identical, the Grizzlies have a harder schedule (.553 vs .535) and half the number of home games (3 vs 6 for the Rockets). For the last 10 games, the only thing Rockets have on the Grizzlies is Margin (6.9 vs 1.7). +5.2 is a good amount, and I do believe Margin of victory is a good indicator in a vacuum, but should it outweigh everything else?

Similarly with the Suns. I think they're being rewarded by outscoring a few teams in a very favorable part of their schedule (both in terms of H/A splits and SoS). They've had the easiest schedule in the league over the past 10 games and it's not even close. I look at a few teams they're ahead of in the standings (like the Dubs) and scratch my head a little.

Just my unsolicited 2 cents. I really enjoy looking these stats/rankings over btw! Great for discussion :)

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by Andrewu91 »

My favorite power rankings are back

Unfortunately #19 isn't ideal but hopefully we can go streaking again and hit the top 10 next time.
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by bt »

GreenBear wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:17 pm Looking at a couple of these teams, I think to me, the formula puts maybe a little too much weight into Margin of victory in the past 10 games compared to everything else. For example, Rockets and Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have slightly better stats on the season (SoS and Margin are virtually identical, while Grizzlies have a better record and Rockets have more home games), so that means the Rockets must outscore them in the past 10 games. Their records the past 10 are identical, the Grizzlies have a harder schedule (.553 vs .535) and half the number of home games (3 vs 6 for the Rockets). For the last 10 games, the only thing Rockets have on the Grizzlies is Margin (6.9 vs 1.7). +5.2 is a good amount, and I do believe Margin of victory is a good indicator in a vacuum, but should it outweigh everything else?

Similarly with the Suns. I think they're being rewarded by outscoring a few teams in a very favorable part of their schedule (both in terms of H/A splits and SoS). They've had the easiest schedule in the league over the past 10 games and it's not even close. I look at a few teams they're ahead of in the standings (like the Dubs) and scratch my head a little.

Just my unsolicited 2 cents. I really enjoy looking these stats/rankings over btw! Great for discussion :)
I think someone mentioned this a while ago as well. They're just the Hollinger calculations but nothing to say I can't change the weights around although opposite to you, I do like the last 10 weight Hollinger has because who wants a power rankings where teams are ranked mainly by record. The last 10, in theory, should have hotter teams higher. In execution, no idea if the calculations are entirely accurate.

The Rockets/Grizzlies one is tight. Both 6-4 but a larger margin for the Rockets in the last 10 and you covered everything else. I might go into the calculations and see how much weight is applied as they did play 3 more home games with lesser opposition overall.

The Suns last 10 has them playing well and I like that they're above vertain teams with better records who have been struggling but yeah, more home games and that strength is pretty low. Maybe last 10 margin is carrying a bit too much weight.
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tremont waters | skylar mays | nigel johnson
matisse thybulle | justin james
robert franks | darius bazely | john butler
donta hall | xavier tillman | patrick williams
jon collins | jonathan isaac | norvel pelle | mfiondu kabengele


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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by Stockton12 »

We are higher then I thought

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by emplep7 »

We are trash and right where we belong.
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by GreenBear »

bt wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 1:41 am I think someone mentioned this a while ago as well. They're just the Hollinger calculations but nothing to say I can't change the weights around although opposite to you, I do like the last 10 weight Hollinger has because who wants a power rankings where teams are ranked mainly by record. The last 10, in theory, should have hotter teams higher. In execution, no idea if the calculations are entirely accurate.

The Rockets/Grizzlies one is tight. Both 6-4 but a larger margin for the Rockets in the last 10 and you covered everything else. I might go into the calculations and see how much weight is applied as they did play 3 more home games with lesser opposition overall.

The Suns last 10 has them playing well and I like that they're above vertain teams with better records who have been struggling but yeah, more home games and that strength is pretty low. Maybe last 10 margin is carrying a bit too much weight.
I wasn’t super clear and was a bit all over the place. I actually don’t mind the weighted last 10 games for the reasons you said. I’m just not a big fan of specifically how much weight the “Margin of victory over the last 10 games” seems to hold. In a small sample size of 10, Margin of victory is going to be very volatile. One blowout win over a bad team (or an injury riddled team) will sway that number a ton. Likewise for a blowout loss.

I didn’t realize you used the Hollinger calculations, but I’m sure you’ve mentioned it several times before and I forgot haha. It’s been several years since I’ve taken a close look at these rankings, and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I think I locked in on a team like the Suns that I don’t think belongs where they’re at and worked backwards to determine what part of the calculations I might disagree with ha.

Thanks again for putting these stats/rankings together, Ryan!

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by andrei »

GreenBear wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:17 pm Looking at a couple of these teams, I think to me, the formula puts maybe a little too much weight into Margin of victory in the past 10 games compared to everything else. For example, Rockets and Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have slightly better stats on the season (SoS and Margin are virtually identical, while Grizzlies have a better record and Rockets have more home games), so that means the Rockets must outscore them in the past 10 games. Their records the past 10 are identical, the Grizzlies have a harder schedule (.553 vs .535) and half the number of home games (3 vs 6 for the Rockets). For the last 10 games, the only thing Rockets have on the Grizzlies is Margin (6.9 vs 1.7). +5.2 is a good amount, and I do believe Margin of victory is a good indicator in a vacuum, but should it outweigh everything else?

Similarly with the Suns. I think they're being rewarded by outscoring a few teams in a very favorable part of their schedule (both in terms of H/A splits and SoS). They've had the easiest schedule in the league over the past 10 games and it's not even close. I look at a few teams they're ahead of in the standings (like the Dubs) and scratch my head a little.

Just my unsolicited 2 cents. I really enjoy looking these stats/rankings over btw! Great for discussion :)
Write more please about how the Grizzlies are great and the Rockets and their GM suck. I need an ego boost :D
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by KW »

andrei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:46 pmWrite more please about how the Grizzlies are great and the Rockets and their GM suck. I need an ego boost :D
Please go ahead I need the laughs :D :D

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by GreenBear »

andrei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:46 pm Write more please about how the Grizzlies are great and the Rockets and their GM suck. I need an ego boost :D
Rumor has it that's why Monk has demanded a trade out of Houston :)

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by KW »

GreenBear wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:03 pm
andrei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:46 pm Write more please about how the Grizzlies are great and the Rockets and their GM suck. I need an ego boost :D
Rumor has it that's why Monk has demanded a trade out of Houston :)
I would waive Monk before I traded him to Memphis

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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by hardenwithnod »

Send Monk to WSH.
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by drumr »

Monk/Porter ??? Lol
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Re: CSL Stat Power Rankings (17 January 2031)

Post by cb4raptorscb4 »

Always love these. I'm sure a week or two ago and we would have been top 10, but losing 5 of 6 on the road trip really hurt us. Hopefully we can bounce back, but this season seems a lot different than last year, even though we have the same roster and are running the same strats basically lol
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