Free Agency Tracker

[Marcos_Beck]

[Marcos_Beck]

This will be a Free Agency Tracker, guys.

I'll try to update it with signings and everything else. Just got that done with the ratings, that are based on my personal judgement and the formulas below.

Guards: Offense (x2) + Defense (x2) + Playmaking (x1,5) + Rebounds (x0,5) + Intangibles - Age/10
Forwards: Offense (x2) + Defense (x2) + Playmaking + Rebounds + Intangibles - Age/10
Centers: Offense (x2) + Defense (x2) + Playmaking (x0,5) + Rebounds (x1,5) + Intangibles - Age/10

Offense: Takes into account scoring, efficiency, drawing fouls.
Defense: Takes into account defense, blocks, steals.
Playmaking: Passing, handling.
Rebounding: Offensive and defensive rebounds.
Intangibles: DI and IQ.

Yes, the formula takes into account offense and defense more than anything, so two way players will have higher rankings. Still, playmaking for guards or rebounding for renters carries a lot of weight as well so that makes it fair to those specialists.

I'll update this with the likelihood each player can leave it's mother team as soon as I've got time. Enjoy, comment and bash my rankings a lot!

[Marcos_Beck]

Comments on Guards:

This year’s free agents at both guard spots are either old, declining unrestricted free agents or restricted ones looking for their first big paycheck.

Exception to the rules are Ben McLemore and Devin Booker, although both come into free agency in very different situations. McLemore shows up as the best shooting option among guards and is definitely getting a max offer from someone, if not from Boston itself. Really hard option to steal, but you never know, he could be this year’s Dame Lillard.
Booker on the other hand is looking for a team that gives him an opportunity to display his full scoring arsenal after playing for the QO with the Clippers. At 24 years old, he’s young enough to become the steal of this Free Agency for a team that invests instructions to better guide him offensively.

The old but gold crop contains the best guard in this year’s FA, namely Russ Westbrook. Injured for the season, the Kings are undecided on keeping him and a big enough offer can pry him away from Sacramento. Steph Curry emerges as another great shooting option who can hold his own defensively, but the Jazz will surely consider keeping him. Former champ D-Rose is a real candidate to switch teams, as he can still play a role at a championship squad, bringing great, efficient scoring, together with solid creation and man defense. Chicago is rumored to be interested in bringing back Rose but remains undecided on the matter.
To finalize about the old contributors, Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson cannot be overlooked as legit two way options, although their handles are somewhat poor to play the lead guard nowadays. CJ McCollum is an option to add more shooting, but will brick everything when if your team makes the finals. And Avery Bradley is another stopper option who could be acquired on the cheap.

When it comes to restricted players, Cory Joseph showed enough development over his rookie scale contract to earn himself a place among those who must-match players. Toronto is keeping him no matter what and if he commands a max, this will be fair price. Mudiay has a lot to prove but Tim signalized he’s matching anything coming his way, though a max offer could come as a poison pill for LA (or whoever adds Emmanuel if the Lakers surprisingly go another route).
Tyus Jones, Justin Holiday and Austin Rivers are very much liked by their home teams and realistically shouldn’t be hard to keep around at fair price, although some GMs have stated they are going to price drive RFAs. The wrong contract could prove to be harmful, though, as they are low end starters at best.

Moore, Crabbe and Simmons also shows up as good options to start / come off the bench as defensive glue guys, and are more realistic targets when it comes to RFA steals because of their unknown current role with the team / lack of GM.

Brandon Jennings will once again try to prove his (in)efficiency isn't a problem and the playmaking aspect of his game can overcome that. Trey Burke is a solid option for anyone looking for steady play, solid defense and 3 point shooting. Another option for shooting with more size and athleticism is Terrence Ross, even though the other aspects of the game (outside of the AT MOST average defense) leaves a lot to be desired. Will Barton completes the list of free agent guards as a do-it-all option off the bench, fitting any kind of team and with championship experience.

Tomorrow analysis for the Forward spots!

[Myles]

Solid stuff! I like when people do FA articles, it makes sure we see all the options and players don’t get stuck with a bad deal for lack of options.

[Flaming Homer]

Thank you Marcos, outstanding work.
Something to compare my rankings with and adjust it ... even if my list is not even close as this detailed

[Marcos_Beck]

Let’s talk about Forwards today!

Otto Porter and Kevin Durant headlines this year’s forwards class! Graded as a 10 at defense and offense, respectively, both are UFAs on very different stages of their careers: past his prime and with several rating drops because of the constant injuries, KD is surely going to attract attention from the Warriors but it’s questionable if someone will also offer anything solid enough to steal him away. Porter, enjoying his prime, should command a max offer from Sacramento and much likely from other teams at day 1 as he’s the kind of player who can turn a defense around alone while contributing in many other aspects of the game. I bet he remains with Sac Town but if they lowball here, there’s a solid chance he leaves.

Middleton, Green, Mirotic and Crowder, best RFAs of this group, are locks to return to their current teams no matter what. Only possibility of them leaving is by a Sign and Trade deal, so if you want any of them I recommend reaching out to their mother teams.

Then comes three players who can potentially be stolen, specially the first two: Aaron Gordon, DeMarre Carroll and Kevon Looney. Houston loves Looney but we don’t know how much he’s whorty so he could be had at the right salary, but beware of the fact that he’s not even close to a game changer despite solid everywhere. Still, PFs are rare in this league and he knows how to do his job. Gordon, likewise, is probably getting a maximum offer at day one from a rebuilding squad such as the Knicks or the Hawks, and it remains to be seen if the Celtics will pay whatever it takes to stay with him or risk losing him while trying to lock him into s cheaper deal.
Carroll though is the most obtainable starter of the whole FA group. He’s 30 and restricted, but the Thunder sum up to 80.5M in salaries (WITHOUT Darrun Hilliard’s salary already) and 8 players only, which leaves them 8M under the hard cap (counting the 3 minimum roster spots already). A strong offer could easily pry away Carroll due to the fact that the Thunder cannot match him. If they do, they’ll have to send away some talent away for under optimal value (the same team offering for DeMarre can be available to receive whatever the Thunder decides to dump to get the most out of the situation). I recommend offers over 10M so they can’t only send away the little used Josh Davis and has to move either Qi or McRae to keep their strongest 3&D guy.

Bogdan and Butler presents starting options for offense and defense if you are looking for specialists and, being UFAs, can be considered as good targets to switch teams with strong enough offers.

LeBron and Turner are washed up versions of former all around players but can still play a role off the bench on reasonable salary, so can the rest of the UFAs at the 3 or 4.
If you need shooting, Bullock and McDermott and even Ryan Anderson (as a stretch four) are there to help despite defensive shortcomings.
Scoring? LMA delivers inside. Same for Gay, who can also play some wing minutes.
Thad Young adds defense and steals as an awkward matchup at the 4, while Stone is there for those in need of a superb rebounder at the 4 or even 5. And if you need a combination of both who can play D and rebound at both SF/PF, Aminu is the correct guy.

The rest of the class are RFAs and it’s hard to gauge the interest in them, even though Willy will reportedly do anything to keep the RoCo experiment alive in Orlando. Tucker is old but defensive players are never too much, Bojan is a solid young shooter whom Utah shouldn’t have problems keeping and Oubre Jr at 22 is praying someone bets high enough on his upside / development as a safe 3/D option.

Tonight the Centers as we get ready for contract decisions!

[Andrewu91]

Love it. Cool idea man

[Marcos_Beck]

Just generating more information and hoping to create a little havoc even if I lose one or two guys due to that haha

[Cleasby]

This is awesome. You need to come on a podcast haha

[GreenBear]

Fantastic work, Marcos!

[hardenwithnod]

Great stuff, buddy.

[Dennis]

Very good article. Tom Clancy trophy level.

[Marcos_Beck]

Now for the Centers as we move on to the last comments on this year’s free agents.

On top of the group (and free agency as a whole) stands a unicorn known by the name of Kristaps PorzinGOD. Being the representation of a complete player, the kid who morphed from possible bust to MVP candidate is definitely going nowhere and is a lock to be maxed by Kevin. Best scenario for everyone else is Utah gets too fancy here and Kristaps signs a 3+1 (player option) deal, hitting UFA much earlier than expected.

Whiteside still shows all signs of being a max player despite a disappointing season with the Hawks, and they can’t afford to lose him after dangling a lot of assets last season, so he’s another lock to stay.

Tavares and Capela represents the best possibility among the group of possible starters to leave their mother teams as the Wizards have no current direction set and the Bulls are rumored to be after a star with their 18M or so cap space. Should Chicago renounces his rights, we could envision both manning the middle for different organizations next year. However, big man have a historical tradition of being overpaid and generating little to none success in most cases. Teams must be aware of that fact when offering big money to those two, specially Capela who doesn’t qualify as a surefire starter.

Boban the giant is remaining with Denver after they sent WCS to Chicago and rightfully so. Even if he’s not worthy a max, and can’t play enough minutes to justify the contrary, Denver just committed too much to let him go.

The rest of this class either has glaring limitations at offense / defense or is too past its prime to be considered great talent. Dwight might be the only guy who can be counted as a two way presence with good rebounding prowess. At 24M he looked like negative value but bringing him in at seven digits should prove the point that he still has enough on the tank to contribute, even if off the bench.

Cody Zeller is a much younger option than Brook Lopez and might command a higher salary as the top offensive big left, although Lopez is not really far behind and adds some shotblocking as well.

Sanders and Ezeli (RFA) are your best option for defense and rim protection, but might hurt your offense a lot. Still they are good enough to be employed for a team in need of an interior anchor, ideally on its second unit.

After that, Daniel Miller and Alex Len shows up as your tipical jack of all trades, master of none. There’s an interesting balance of scoring and D on those guys and they can board as well, although they only classify as “average” everywhere. These guy on low salary deals could turn into valuable contributors and maybe even trade assets during the deadline, but be careful not to overpay.

Cam Bairstow, Dakari Johnson and Dedmon provides rebounding for those in need, Hibbert proved there’s something left in his tank after a solid year with the Sixers and Mason Plumlee and Rudy Gobert shows up as players who brings in shotblocking, defensive rebounding and intelligent play.

Ah, and for Houston there’s also Moreland and his unique point center skills.

[wms02a]

Do yall think Mem would match a near max deal on Crowder?

[Rizzo]

Only one way to find out!

[Marcos_Beck]

Do yall think Mem would match a near max deal on Crowder?

Like I stated above, I easily do. There are, for me, 8 players who are really locks to remain with their teams no matter what. Crowder is one of them. Memphis has no cap space problems and gave up Kevin Durant for Crowder. No way they are letting him go.

I'm gonna update the first post with the (IMO) likelihood of all players leaving their mother teams. Working on that now. In 5 minutes the images will be up.

1-10,

1 - virtually impossible (just if the GM has no internet for like a month)
2 - almost guaranteed to return with a max offer from their mother team
3 - player isn't guaranteed a max offer but has good chances of returning (unless someone offers a max)
4 - team wants the player back but other teams should offer more money
5 - it's not known if the team wants the player back or not (and how much it could spend)
6 - team doesn't want the player back but will keep him for a good price
7 - team exploring other ways but player might be a last option for them
8 - team has some sort of problem (finances, direction or lack of GM) to keep the player but might do so
9 - player will leave unless staying at a minimum deal
10 - no interest in a reunion for the mother team, not even at a minimum.

[andrei]

Do yall think Mem would match a near max deal on Crowder?

I only hope we will not have another situation where top teams sign their FAs for pennies while bottom feeders like us have to match maximum offers. We will 100% match any offer but not sure what is the benefit to the league from parity perspective ...

[andrei]

Also I offered a Zeller fo Tavares swap because they are more or less equal with ~40 Marcos points but certain Bastard GM who will remain nameless refused

[wms02a]

Also I offered a Zeller fo Tavares swap because they are more or less equal with ~40 Marcos points but certain Bastard GM who will remain nameless refused

HAHAHAHA

[hardenwithnod]

Also I offered a Zeller fo Tavares swap because they are more or less equal with ~40 Marcos points but certain Bastard GM who will remain nameless refused

Pay up!