Jordan Clarkson has been emblematic of Portland's shocking plunge this season[/i]
At 14-21, the Portland Trailblazers have stunned CSL observers just as much as they did last season when they shocked the world by winning 58 games and the Northwest with an ease that defied all expectations for a squad most considered on the playoff bubble.
Going into this season, many believed the Blazers would again top the Northwest despite stiffer competition from rising teams in Utah and Oklahoma City. It was a reasonable expectation - they returned their core, losing only Jerami Grant and Iman Shumpert - neither of whom were significant pieces or differencemakers for the squad. Nor did they make any deals. Even with an expected regression from the seemingly ageless Al Horford(who is still averaging 16.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, and a block per game on still stellar efficiency), 50 wins still seemed very much in reach.
Some would point to Gordon Hayward's November 24th broken leg, but even before Hayward's injury, Portland was 5-9, meaning they've gone a surprisingly better 9-12 without him. So that's certainly not been the reason for the dip (and it remains to be seen what Hayward's role will be when he returns - Joe Ingles's 3&D game has brought more value and wins than Hayward's average all-around game).
Player Candidates
PG/SG Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson is the most likely candidate for the Blazers' swoon. After being rewarded with a 4 year, $43 million contract renewal, he's off to his worst Blazers shooting season - after shooting 45-46% his first 3 years in Rip City, he's converting just 43.5% from the floor. Even more troubling, he's averaging a higher 14.1 points a game, dinging the team efficiency. Also worth noting - he's shooting just 32.8% from jumper range on a team-high 5.2 attempts a game.
PG/SG Brandon Jennings
Always a polarizing player, the 31 year old Jennings hit it big in free agency, landing a $10 million one year deal to play just under 16 minutes a game. And yet, he's shooting a typically poor 41.1%, yet is taking the 5th most shots at 8.5 FGA/game. More significant - ['b]his usage is the highest on the team at 27.6%[/b].
PG/SG Chasson Randle
Last year, Randle was one of the feel-good rookie of the year stories. This season, he's gone from 46.3% from the floor to 40%, and he's been a chink in the drive-stopping wall at 69.5%. Nor has he developed a 3 point shot at all. This is borne out by the fact his -6.7 NET is the worst on the team for anyone averaging more than 10 minutes a game. He may be a front office favorite, but his performance just hasn't warranted any minutes, and he's costing the team games.
The Center Situation
Yes, Al Horford is still quality, but he's 34. Backing him up is 36 year old Joakim Noah, a ghost of his former self, although can contribute as a role player. One thing we aren't seeing at the 5 is youth. How different this position group would look with Joshua Smith over Henry Ellenson, that unnecessary replicator of much of Nikola Mirotic's game.
Related to that, the Blazers lack a strong rebounder on both ends of the floor - most are specialists are one side or the other, and Horford's decline points to the lack of a truly great shotblocker. While this is mitigated somewhat by the strong drive stoppers along the perimeter (Jennings excepted), it's still an issue worth noting.
Analysis reveals Brandon Jennings has been far more costly than even his $10 million price tag
The Team Issues
On the face of it, not much stands out in terms of team statistics either positive or negative. Worth noting: despite the -7 in the win margin, Portland is actually +0.5 in point differential, which suggests a combination of bad luck and issues at the margins (no pun intended) of this squad. Indeed, the items pointed out above could well be the sliver-swing between the lottery and at least in the playoff conversation. The gap has been that narrow.
One thing that does glow sickly bright amidst the middling - 46.8% OPP FG Percentage (22nd) and 39% OPP 3P Percentage (24th worst). Thus, despite an on-paper quality 9th OPP PPG, opponent efficiency has been devastating to Portland this season. That's not down to the Blazers' defensive talent on paper. Nor should it be the result of the turnover battle (+1.7 margin).
We again eye the lack of a shotblocker and Randle's' sub-70% drive stop rate. Portland's 4.1 blocks per game is also the 28th worst in the league. In what appears to be a tempo year for the Blazers, that combination can be just enough to be the difference in wins. But do the game by game margins bear out the aggregrate?
Blazers Record in Games Decided By Less Than 10 Points:
2-9 (18.2%)
Let's say that number is even 5-6, or still below .500 but close to a coin flip. 14-21 then becomes 17-18 and suddenly the Blazers are the #8 seed, fighting neck and neck with the Golden State Warriors for that last spot, though far behind the obscene Top 7 in the West, all of whom have a 61% or higher win percentage.
Overall Synopsis
Is Portland as bad as their record shows? No. They should be comfortably ensconced in the 8 seed in reality, and on the borderline between making a move to try and get up the rankings or continuing to build for the future around still young Marcus Smart, Nikola Mirotic, etc. Where they're losing is in the narrowest of ways, undone by ineffiency from Clarkson, Jennings, and Randle, with Randle also opening up a defensive hole whenever he's on the floor.
Correction can come by looking for a low usage rebounder and shotblocker - defense outside of that doesn't matter much, given the rest of the roster and by replacing Randle with literally anyone - even more minutes for Jennings in an expanded 6th man role would be an upgrade on both ends over the sophomore.
The question, of course, is if Cleasby can find or even has the desire to make those moves, or if he's content to simply run out Horford and Noah's clocks, start anew in free agency next summer with a lottery pick to boot and award Golden State a playoff spot by default.
