Analysis: Youth vs Experience
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:07 pm
I know its early in the season, but I decided to look at the general makeup of the league since everyone is OBSESSED with youth it seems and see if it has translated to early season success this year. This will just essentially be a numbers based exercise, but all I did was plot the average age of each teams whole roster and starting 5 against their winning percentage.
Average Age of Team vs Winning Percentage
Analysis: So while this can be slightly misleading, there does seem to be a trend early on in the season with a certain age range and winning %. Granted there are outliers (Boston and Miami), but for the most part it seems that teams with an average roster age between 25 and 26 seem to have the most success so far. This is interesting because most people have though that players enter their prime in the game at 28, so could we be bucking the trend? Or are we so obsessed with youth that this is the environment we have created? Let see what the starting 5 data says...
Average Age of Starting Five vs Winning Percentage
Analysis: Now its hit or miss because there are some teams that are playing awful right now, but it seems like the trend moves upward for the starting 5 (and is more broad). The data suggests that while having a younger team makeup overall seems to be working so far this season, your starting 5 should actually fall in the 25-28 range, with the most success in the 27 to 28 range. Again, its early and as we gather more data this could show the true value of age vs experience.
Below is the raw data that I used for these plots in case anyone cared:
Again, Its very early and it will be interesting to follow up on this later in the season, but let me know what you think about the age old question around going young or getting experienced vets to bring you a ring.
Average Age of Team vs Winning Percentage
Analysis: So while this can be slightly misleading, there does seem to be a trend early on in the season with a certain age range and winning %. Granted there are outliers (Boston and Miami), but for the most part it seems that teams with an average roster age between 25 and 26 seem to have the most success so far. This is interesting because most people have though that players enter their prime in the game at 28, so could we be bucking the trend? Or are we so obsessed with youth that this is the environment we have created? Let see what the starting 5 data says...
Average Age of Starting Five vs Winning Percentage
Analysis: Now its hit or miss because there are some teams that are playing awful right now, but it seems like the trend moves upward for the starting 5 (and is more broad). The data suggests that while having a younger team makeup overall seems to be working so far this season, your starting 5 should actually fall in the 25-28 range, with the most success in the 27 to 28 range. Again, its early and as we gather more data this could show the true value of age vs experience.
Below is the raw data that I used for these plots in case anyone cared:
Again, Its very early and it will be interesting to follow up on this later in the season, but let me know what you think about the age old question around going young or getting experienced vets to bring you a ring.