5 Burning Questions
Southeast Division
Can Bradley Beal lead his Hornets to at least a .500 record?
We head south now in our 5 Burning Questions series, taking a path straight down the Atlantic coast to the Southeast Division. Easily the worst division in the CSL, the Southeast is looking like there will only be one winning team in the whole division this season. To be fair, none of the teams seem like they are hopeless, there are certainly paths for interesting futures for all five franchises. Southeast Division
Can Bradley Beal lead his Hornets to at least a .500 record?
Before we get started, we just want to note that this article series was inspired by a GM who has mentioned recently that the league is feeling dead, but hasn't done anything about it. If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem.
1. Miami is the team with the brightest future, right?
When else have we seen a team with this collection of incredible picks? As of right now, they are projected to have the #1 slot in the lottery (Bucks), the #4 slot (their own pick), the #7 slot (Denver's), and the #15th slot (New York Knicks). That's an absolutely absurd number of high picks in one draft, and to add to that they are looking at roughly 20M in cap space if they decline all their team options and renounce all their expirings, which they will. They could easily trade away multiple draft picks for an all-star caliber player, and then also have one or two more chances at drafting a top notch young talent as well. The #4 pick alone, in a weak draft no less, got Denver Lance Stephenson and Tyler Ennis. What could #4 and #7 get Miami in a much more heralded draft?
So it's unquestionable that they have a bright future. I mean, it would take a massive failure to screw this up and not end up with a playoff contender in a few years. But do they have the brightest future? Do they have a brighter future than the Golden State Warriors, who boast some of the best of the past few drafts in Kris Dunn, Joel Embiid, and Cameron Payne, not to mention their own draft pick coming up? Do they look better moving forward than the Sacramento Kings, who still have the youngest contending team in the league by a country mile? What about the Indiana Pacers, who boast Karl Anthony-Towns, Draymond Green, George DePaula, and Mario Hezonja, all under the age of 23?
To be honest, I think this will be a "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" scenario, but Miami absolutely has to be considered one of the best teams in terms of potential moving forward.
2. Are there any CSL rotation-level players on the Atlanta Hawks roster?
The Atlanta Hawks have done a great job of tearing down the awful team they had last year, dumping bloated contracts, and turning them into young players that could grow with the franchise. However, like most teams in their situation, after the tear down they have been left with something hardly resembling a CSL roster, and unfortunately even the young top talent they have acquired hasn't looked so talented.
Before we get into the young guys, we should take a moment to acknowledge that the Hawks do have a number of veterans that have shown they have a role on a good team. The best one of the bunch is Danny Green, who's shooting ability and decent defense makes him a good fit with most teams around the league. Nikola Pekovic also still has some low post scoring ability and solid offensive rebounding. I'm not a fan of any of the other guys on their roster over the age of 25.
As for the U25s, it's much more of a mixed bag of players. There are a few that clearly don't belong in this league, Tyler Johnson (a scorer who can't seem to put the ball in the bucket very well), DeAndre Bembry (has some hope to be a jack of all trades, but doesn't look to be above average in any one skill), and JaMychal Green (see Bembry). Joffrey Lauvergne is an interesting player, as I personally am not a fan of what it looks like he's going to become, but there's a chance he gets good enough to be a rotation quality player. He's a score first big man, albeit on middling efficiency, but plays absolutely no defense and is a slightly above average rebounder at best. Bobby Portis is a really intriguing young big man, as he's the jack of all trades that is actually good at most skills, but he doesn't have any single elite skill and doesn't shoot well enough to justify his lack of elite rebounding, or defense, or foul drawing, or anything that would differentiate him from the rest of the league. A good guy to have, but probably not a real impact player.
The last group and the one we certainly hope to find a future CSL starter in is the three rookies. Unfortunately, while Domantas Sabonis came into the draft looking like he could develop into a scoring big men with few true weaknesses, it looks like that ceiling won't be reached. I wouldn't be surprised to see him out of the league by the end of his rookie deal, as he quite frankly just looks lost on the court. His best case scenario is that he could be used as a situation stretch big. D'Angelo Russell is looking like a bust as well, as he came into the league boasting a scoring mentality and a point guard skill set, but he really seems to be hitting the minimums on both of those categories. His passing and handle are what I'd consider acceptable as a point guard, and his bag of tricks offensively will make him a decent scorer, but not a game changing one. His best case scenario most likely will be as a 6th man shooting guard, where he can be hidden defensively and he can use his best skill to his advantage against bench units.
So then we get down to our final hope for a future CSL starter on this Hawks team, and that's in the player everyone wanted to draft in defensive superstar Justise Winslow. Amazingly, somehow, his defensive skills were not overhyped coming into the draft. He's already up there with Okaro White and Otto Porter in terms of raw defensive talent, and while he has some work to do in getting to be an elite CSL defender (only stopping 76% of drives right now), he is already showing that he can make an impact on that end (2.1 steals per game, 1.2 blocks, 0.85 PA/SF). The problem is, he's just as bad offensively as he is good defensively. He's pretty awful with taking care of the ball, and he simply cannot make any kind of bucket outside of the lane. If he can rein in his offense and understand to only shoot when close to the basket, and can find a way to be able to get to the basket without turning the ball over on his way there, then he will become a real quality CSL starter, and not a defensive specialist. That right there is the Hawks best hope at a future CSL player.
3. Do the Wizards have anyone worth building around?
Pretty similar question here for Washington as what the Hawks are facing, but at the next step of the rebuilding process. The Hawks need to know if they have anyone worth keeping on the roster at all, the Wizards need to find out if they have the guy to start building their team around. They certainly have a decent rotation already in place should they find their star, with floor general Bryce Cotton, inside scorer Jonas Valanciunas (though it remains to be seen if he's truly a starter), and "rebounding god" Tyler Stone. All three of these guys are quality players for Washington, though no one would ever confuse them with being a star.
So where could their star come from? The Wizards have quite a few young players who are still growing into their game, as they have been very shrewd on the trade market and made smart, calculated moves. Over the past year or so, they've acquired Trevor Lacey, Gary Harris, Larry Nance Jr, and a number of other teams draft picks that led to players like Guerschon Yabuesele and Briante Weber. For a few of these players, it's clear they won't be anything more than a rotational player, which isn't a bad thing, but it's not what we are looking for here. Trevor Lacey has shown an ability to make 3 point shots (career 37% from deep) but he doesn't take enough shots, and he does a lot of good things defensively but he's not a real game changer on the defensive end. Nance Jr. shows an ability to be a decent rebounder, a decent defender, and a well rounded offensive game, but again, not aggressive enough on either end to ever be a star. Weber has defensive star written all over him, in fact, his defense alone is in the class of Kemba Walker, Eric Bledsoe, and Ricky Rubio. That's all he knows how to do though, as his offense is atrocious. Yabuesele is everything I said about Nance Jr., except more of an inside focused offensive game. Lastly, there's Tyus Jones, who looks really similar to the aforementioned D'Angelo Russell. At best, he could be a backup combo guard, perhaps a fifth starter on a good team. Not really building block material here so far.
After that group of players, there are three guys who have a little bit more of a chance of becoming a foundation player. The least likely of the three is Ivica Zubac, the Wizards rookie center. The scouts say he's got a lot of potential left, and while my scouts don't see a future star, there's always more variation when a player is shown with a lot of potential, so our team could just be very off on him. His best case scenario is a better Valancunias, someone with the inside scoring ability to get up a lot of good shots, and Zubac should become more efficient as time goes on. I'm not betting any money on this happening, but I have to acknowledge that there's a chance. My next bet would be on Gary Harris, a two way guard who makes a real difference on both ends of the court. Defensively, he's great at keeping his man in front of him and making their life difficult, and he has quick hands to get steals, though the Wizards zone defense makes it less likely for him to make those turnovers. On the offensive end, he's got a great perimeter offensive game, but he struggles to finish inside and can sometimes be too passive, too willing to look for his teammates when he needs to be the one to take the shot. He's a great player, and will be a good #3/#4 on a contending team, but he's not a star.
The only hope the Wizards have of finding that star on their own team is none other than forward TJ Warren, a kid with incredible scoring talent. He's got offensive moves for days, whether that's using his size to work in the post, using his athleticism to attack the rim, or using his great mid range jumper to punish sagging defenses. Sure, he doesn't have the greatest all around game, he's poor defensively, he won't ever get that many assists, but this game has always been, and will always be, about getting buckets. Some of the best teams in the history of the game have been built around great scorers who relied on the rest of their team to pick up the slack elsewhere. Allen Iverson and the 76ers, for example, or more appropriately, a team like the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, led by Dirk Nowitzki, who scored like a madman, but was the worst defender and, at best, an average rebounder. Warren has those kinds of skills, but has never gotten enough minutes to show that he can score over 20 points per game.
In all honesty though, Warren is ultimately probably not that guy. While he does have an array of scoring moves, he can't shoot the three pointer at all, and he's a poor free throw shooter, and also doesn't get to the free throw line enough to put his opponents in foul trouble either. He is a great scorer off the bench, and is also the type of player that bad teams could use so they can still stay respectable and keep fans in seats, but he's not a star that a playoff team can build around. It's sad to say with all the youth on the Wizards, but they are still searching for their star.
4. Why can't Charlotte win games?
Going from a team searching for their star, to a team who has found their star, Charlotte should absolutely be better than they are performing, in large part due to the fact that they already have a solid core in All Star Andrew Wiggins, 3 point marksman Bradley Beal, and two way big man Derrick Favors. They shoot well as a team, are one of the best three point shooting teams in the league, and are a top 10 team in the league in blocks per game. So what's going on?
Well... a whole lot actually. Let's start with the on-court stuff. They can shoot, but they can't do much else on offense. Well, more accurately, they can't take care of the ball at all on offense. They are 5th worst in the league in turnovers per game, just barely ahead of the Warriors and the Heat, two of the worst teams in the league. They are "led" by Kyle Lowry at 4.1 turnovers per game, but Wiggins, Favors, and Juwan Staten also cough up the ball at least two times per game each as well. Their defense is pretty bad; they are 23rd in the league in opponent field goal percentage (46.1%) and 24th in opponent three point percentage (39.2%). They are also lacking depth in a bad way, as after their top 4 (Wiggins, Beal, Favors, Lowry), they are playing guys like Staten, Frank Kaminsky (more on him in a minute), Jon Leuer, and Kevin Seraphin, all players who are very flawed and shouldn't be playing heavy minutes for a team that could be a playoff contender based on their top four players.
What's worse than that is their front office seems to have gone AWOL. Kaminsky tore his achilles on January 19th, yet here we are, 10 games later, and they haven't adjusted their rotation at all. The general manager hasn't been seen or heard from publicly in a month and a half, which was when Kaminsky was traded for, and the league office hasn't heard at all from Charlotte either in three weeks. Charlotte needs some guidance, and they aren't getting it, leading to lackluster on-court performance.
5. Speaking of top-heavy teams, how much longer can Orlando keep this up?
If we thought Charlotte's depth situation was bad, we shouldn't even look into the Orlando depth issue, as it is troubling. They have one of the best players in the league in Paul George, two more top end talents in DeMarcus Cousins and Brook Lopez, and then it all falls off a cliff with the rest of the roster. It's not completely barren; Robert Covington is a pretty good defensive player who can make open shots (though I wish he would shoot more 3s), Rajon Rondo is one of the best defensive point guards in the league and still has some of his old playmaking wizardry, and Marquese Chriss looks like he could be a low-end starter one day.
They have some seriously troubling issues moving forward, starting with their lack of their own draft pick this year (set to be a late pick, but that's still one fewer cost controlled young talent on the roster), but most importantly, their cap situation moving forward. If they don't make a single move, and renounce all of their expiring contracts, they will be over the hard cap next season with 8 players under contract. They are set to have 92M in guaranteed salaries, which puts them 2M over the hard cap with at least four slots to fill. If that happens, they forfeit a first round pick. The easiest way for them to get out of the hard cap will be to decline Brook Lopez's option for 19M, but they will almost certainly not have enough wiggle room under the hard cap to bring him back and fill out a full roster, as Lopez will undoubtedly earn 8 figures on the open market. The best way they could create cap room would be to get off of Taj Gibson's salary, as he's set to make nearly 10M next year despite being absolute trash on the court. They would have to give up an asset to get another team to take on Gibson, and for an asset strapped team like the Magic, that leaves either Chriss, Covington, or a first round pick to be given up in order to get out of cap hell. That's not ideal either.
Finally, if they decide it's time to completely rework the roster but try and hang on to their two stars, George and Cousins, that still leaves a bit of a difficult task for them. First, George and Cousins are under contract for three more seasons at a combined 40M+ every year, meaning they will never have enough cap room to build a real team around them. Second, they have very little in the way of trade assets. If they are going to move Lopez, they need to move him by the deadline, and thanks to how they have used him this season, his value is at an all time low. Rondo has a negative trade value, and giving up Covington or Chriss defeats the purpose, but not only that they would have to attach a large salary to one of those to make the trade worth it for the Magic, and as we've stated before, none of their large contracts are all that appealing to other teams in the league. Best case scenario would be they could move one of those two and Lopez for some talented players on long term contracts: perhaps moving Lopez and Chriss for three rotation players who combine to make Lopez's 20M salary.
Ultimately, they will reach the fork in the road soon when they will have no choice but to make a decision in how to proceed with the franchise. At that time, we will see how WillyJakkz handles it, but for me, I think the best thing to do will be to deal anything they can, including George and Cousins, to acquire as many assets as possible to start their rebuild. And to be quite frank, I think that will need to happen this summer. If it were me running it in Orlando, I'd make as many win now moves as I could for this one last stand (without giving up Covington or Chriss), and then win or lose, sell everything possible come the offseason.
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