2018 NBA Draft Class: CSL Expert Analysis

[Myles]

I thought it would be fun to have a place where we could all speculate on the incoming rookie class, and also allow us to go back and see in a few years what our initial thoughts were. I find myself thinking back on old draft classes all the time, and what my dumbest thoughts were (I thought Dante Exum was going to be the best player of the 2014 draft class, and I also thought Kristaps was the most guaranteed bust I had ever seen) and what my smartest ones were (N/A).

I haven't done my research for this draft class yet, but I'll definitely update this thread once I do. But with the lottery tonight, I figured the draft would be on all our minds, so now's a good time to get the ball rolling. What do you guys think about Luka Doncic, DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Michael Porter, etc?

[Rizzo]

I think Ayton is absolutely a can't-miss prospect and will be a stud for many, many years.

[WillyJakkz]

DeAndre Ayton the new David Robinson
Mo Bamba the new Dikembe Mutombo
I would love for the Magic to get either of those guys if we somehow sneak into the Top 2 spots

Marvin Bagley the new Chris Bosh
Wouldn't mind him either at #3

I guess I would be ok with Porter Jr, he seems Ben Simmons-ish but nervous about that back injury, and Doncic looks great but not seeing him as a need here.

Those are the guys who seem like true game changers, not much on Jaren Jackson Jr but he has risen to the Top 4-5 as well.

I want Ayton or Bamba... Would be ok with Bagley Jr and maybe Porter Jr but everyone else is meh

[Rizzo]

What are people's thoughts on Trae Young? As a Celtics fan obviously he makes zero sense on our roster but would like to know how people would feel if their favorite team were to draft him in the high lottery.

[KW]

What are people's thoughts on Trae Young? As a Celtics fan obviously he makes zero sense on our roster but would like to know how people would feel if their favorite team were to draft him in the high lottery.

Definitely has the potential to be messy defensively but I'd be really intrigued if we managed to get him and ran two of Kemba/Monk/Young at all times. Doubt he falls down to #11, but I also didn't think Kemba or Monk would fall to us either.

I don't have a favorite in this draft, as I haven't paid real close attention to college ball this year, but the Hornets could take anybody at any position. It's really open, we could use help anywhere.

[hardenwithnod]

I think Ayton is the only true can't miss prospect in this draft,and I am very intrigued by Doncic. He has improved his game drastically, and his athleticism is much better than advertised. However I just don't know if his IQ, and size can make up his lack of lateral quickness guarding NBA guards. Probably more of a point forward in the NBA.

[drumr]

This is the first year I didn't pay a kick of attention to college ball. Didn't even make a bracket. I've started researching but it looks extremely too heavy. Seems like once if those role player journeyman type drafts (which are my favorite tbh). Lotto tonight!

[drumr]

I have been following Luka Doncic though. I think he could be the best import since Dirk. I've seen him make some special plays that translate to any level.

[hardenwithnod]

Another prospects that I am very intrigued by are the two Bridges, both seem like modern day athletic 3 and D wings that have good upside, and can do a bit of everything.

[Cleasby]

I have been following Luka Doncic though. I think he could be the best import since Dirk. I've seen him make some special plays that translate to any level.

I have never seen a guy that young play that well in euroleague. Tactically very aware and can shoot and pass. Athleticism may be the one thing that lets him down at the next step.

Still I can't wait to see him in the NBA. Easily 3/4 times better than Rubio was at his age.

[blackice]

I have been following Luka Doncic though. I think he could be the best import since Dirk. I've seen him make some special plays that translate to any level.

I have never seen a guy that young play that well in euroleague. Tactically very aware and can shoot and pass. Athleticism may be the one thing that lets him down at the next step.

Still I can't wait to see him in the NBA. Easily 3/4 times better than Rubio was at his age.

Agreed. I actually think he's the next Brandon Roy...

[Myles]

Quick thoughts on the Ringer's top 10 after watching a shamefully small amount of YouTube video on each player:

1. Luka Doncic - This kid is polished and is my favorite to win ROY pending playing time situation obviously. I don't worry about his court vision, I think his jump shot has nice form and he will be an above average shooter, and he shows great body control both as a ball handler and finishing inside. His athleticism is severely lacking, which makes me worry about his ability to be a creator at the NBA level, and his ball handling actually isn't that great. But I think he's definitely worth a top 10 pick and watching him reminds me a ton of late prime Paul Pierce with his excellent footwork making up for his lack of athleticism.

2. DeAndre Ayton - This kid is being picked first unless the Sixers get the #1 pick. And even then they might pick him. He's special. I worry about how he'll compete when he isn't always the biggest guy on the court, because right now he does get a lot of offense by just outmuscling people. His feet move soooo well, and that's huge, because so many big guys are uncoordinated and Ayton is not that. His jumper is nice, but I wouldn't count on it at the pro level just yet.

3. Jaren Jackson Jr - From what I read he sounds like Jonathan Isaac or Noah Vonleh, but he has an insane motor from what I'm seeing. He also moves his feet well but he looks like he could easily become a foul and turnover machine as he brings his arms down a lot defensively and I have yet to see a decent post move from him. His quick feet, vertical and motor make him a guaranteed top 5 pick but I don't see him being a contributor for a few years.

4. Mikal Bridges - I love what I'm seeing from this kid, but he's going to have a DeRozan like arc in the league in that we might think he's a bust after the first couple of years but if he works hard he could be an all-star after his rookie contract is up. He's athletic, smart, and makes team plays, but his three point jumper probably won't translate right away due to the hitch in his shot/slow release, and his ball handling is very shaky. He won't be able to create his own shot and it might take him a few years to have the 3 part of 3&D down. Elite role player potential (think Danny Green or Tayshaun Prince), but he looks a bit like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to me.

5. Marvin Bagley - This kid has the potential to be the best player in this draft. High motor, incredibly athletic, workable jumper. He does have a slight frame, which could limit his ability to guard the bigger interior scorers, but I'll take that weakness since he's really quick and looks like he will fit in well with the new switch heavy defensive schemes in the league. His worst case scenario is Tristan Thompson, which isnt that bad. If he can work on using his right hand around the rim and making at least his mid-range jumper more consistent, then he could be a star.

6. Mo Bamba - Not a fan. I feel like we have seen this story before with Nerlens Noel and Willie Cauley-Stein, people talking about how he can guard five positions, how he can shoot. I see a guy with bad hands, with a smaller frame than even Noel. He relies on just being taller than the average college big man, but he won't ever be able to create post position against or just shoot over NBA big men. Biggest project of this draft, doesn't mean he can't get there, but he has a lot of work to do to get there.

7. Trae Young - These dudes are the toughest to project. His low release point won't play at the NBA level, but he also has a really quick release so that may mitigate that issue to a certain extent. Also, there's always a question when it comes to these players who are their teams entire offensive system. Can they buy in? Young reminds me a lot of Trey Burke, who was almost out of the league. Young has nifty ball handling and has a soft touch around the rim, but it doesn't look like he creates enough seperation and I doubt he will be able to drive past bigger/faster guards, which he'll be playing pretty much every night in the NBA. It can be done, Steph Curry has succeeded despite not having elite athleticism and a slight frame, but there's a reason there's only one Steph Curry.

8. Michael Porter Jr - I don't want to comment given his lack of PT at the college level.

9. Miles Bridges - Eh, I'm not feeling this Bridges as much. There's two kinds of combo forwards, the ones who are fast enough to play on the perimeter and strong enough to play inside, or the ones who play inside because they aren't fast enough and play outside because they aren't strong enough. It's the difference between Derrick Williams, who couldn't bang with the big boys but couldn't keep up with the small forwards, and Otto Porter/Robert Covington. Bridges feels more like Derrick Williams to me. He's incredibly athletic, but in a north/south sense, he doesn't move well laterally and his lack of handles make it tough for me to believe that he will succeed at SF, and his inside scoring seems to come from taking advantage of smaller dudes, not scoring against guys his size.

10. Wendell Carter - Dude this draft is loaded on big men. I like Carter a lot, mostly because he looks like the kind of skilled big man that succeeds in today's game. Plus passer, can shoot (just spot up for now), has good feet and moves well, and shows he can be a good interior defender though he's not in the same mold as some of these other interior defenders. His most obvious weakness is lack of vertical explosiveness, but I don't think that will be an issue.

For me, I'd rank these guys on my big board like this:

1. Marvin Bagley
2. DeAndre Ayton
3. Luka Doncic
4. Wendell Carter
5. Mikal Bridges
6. Jaren Jackson
7. Trae Young
8. Mo Bamba
9. Miles Bridges

[Jestor]

The only one I really know much about is Luka Doncic, and I find the question about his IQ laughable. For his age, he's got the best basketball IQ I've ever seen. If he stayed in the Euroleague, there's no question in my mind he's a lock to be a franchise player. I see him as a kid who can play 1-3 with ridiculous floor general skills and good shooting. But in the NBA, I do think his complete lack of athleticism is going to limit his ceiling. The floor is pretty much a better Hedo Turkoglu, and while some scouts think he's got Magic Johnson-level talent, I don't think he gets that high due to the athleticism issue. He's always going to be someone who needs to be on the weakest player when he's defending (so I could see him guarding a PF in some situations), but I do think he'll be an excellent player that a creative coach can make one of the best on the team. Not a guy I'd take #1 due to some of the issues I see, but definitely top 3.

[Myles]

I have never seen anyone question Doncic’s IQ.

Earlier I said only the Sixers would pass on Ayton, but I forgot the Suns hired the Slovenian coach. I’m still not sure who goes first because I think Phoenix would benefit more from having Ayton and he went to U of A so he has the local angle as well. But I think Ayton/Doncic are for sure the top 2 picks now

[Jestor]

I have never seen anyone question Doncic’s IQ.

Earlier I said only the Sixers would pass on Ayton, but I forgot the Suns hired the Slovenian coach. I’m still not sure who goes first because I think Phoenix would benefit more from having Ayton and he went to U of A so he has the local angle as well. But I think Ayton/Doncic are for sure the top 2 picks now

Gary did up thread.

[hardenwithnod]

I wasn't questioning his IQ, I was saying I wasn't sure his superior IQ can make up for his lack of lateral quickness on defense in today's game.

[Flaming Homer]

I was not watching too much college ball just reading some of the articles about the top prospects. After the lottery I'm pretty sure Ayton will go first and rightfully so.
With the European front office in Sacramento I see them taking Doncic at #2 ... really interesting player here. I feel too that his lack of top athletic ability could be a problem on defense but playing on such a high level at this age is a good sign he can work around that.
It seems there is a little gap after the first two, Atlanta should either trade the pick or take a risk with taking Young (Schroeder is not getting it done anyway) or Michael Porter JR and hope they develop in #1 scoring options.

[Rizzo]

The draft is absolutely loaded on big men at the top which makes me that much more sad that the Lakers pick didn't convey to the Celtics this year. Spoiled, I know, but I don't care!

I'm a big Texas basketball & football fan so I'm always going to be pulling for Mo Bamba. He's a massive project and sure he can play NBA defense right now (his timing on blocks is impeccable) his offense is abysmal. I was also a big Nerlens Noel fan (grew up in the city next to me) and Bamba is definitely more raw than Noel. That's a scary thought.

Bagley I think is going to be the prototypical big man of this new age of basketball and could be a stud and end up the best player in this draft. He's got the tools and like Myles said; if he ever develops a right hand he will be scary.

Wendell Carter is my sleeper big man of this draft. He slides behind Ayton, Bagley, Jackson, Bamba and even Myles Bridges at times but I think he's better than Jackson, Bamba and MSU Bridges. For a guy with his frame he's sneaky athletic and I love that he flashed a college three-ball later in the season. If the Celtics had a pick in the top-10, Carter is who I would have wanted them to take.

[hardenwithnod]

Robert Williams, remember the name. Kid is going to be a special player once developed. Reminds me a bit of Clint Capela.

[Rizzo]

Of course Gary has to crawl back to his Texas A&M roots...........